India’s government just released the most careful, most boring statement you have ever read. The words were chosen to say literally nothing. But 10,000 miles away, in the offices of India’s biggest energy companies, nobody was calm. They were PANICKING.
A single US raid to capture ONE guy in Venezuela has put almost a BILLION dollars of Indian money and a critical oil supply on the line. This one military mission sent a shockwave across the entire planet, and it landed right on India’s front door. This is the insane story of how one raid in Caracas became a total nightmare for New Delhi—and why, hidden inside this nightmare, there might be a multi-billion dollar opportunity.
On January 3rd, 2026, the United States military did something absolutely crazy. In “Operation Absolute Resolve,” US jets wiped out air defenses in Venezuela. Then, an elite team of US Special Forces dropped into the presidential palace, captured President Nicolás Maduro, and flew him to New York City to face drug trafficking charges.
The White House called it a mission to “bring an outlaw dictator to justice.” But to basically everyone else, it was a massive violation of another country’s sovereignty. It was like something out of the 1980s, but this time, they targeted a country with the BIGGEST oil reserves on EARTH. President Donald Trump didn’t hide it. He said the US would “run” Venezuela until things were stable and that “our very large United States oil companies” would go in and “start making money.”
In one single raid, the leader of a country was gone, and his country’s oil was now under American control. As the world freaked out, everyone was looking at the big players. What would India, a country that calls itself a leader of the developing world, do?
The Diplomatic Tightrope
India’s reaction was… weird. They put out a statement saying they had “deep concern” about the “recent developments in Venezuela.” They said they hoped for a peaceful solution and warned Indians not to travel there.
The Foreign Minister was in Luxembourg and said basically the same thing—that India has had “very good relations with Venezuela” and was worried about the people.
But look at what they DIDN’T say. They didn’t condemn the US. They didn’t mention international law. They didn’t say it was illegal to just grab a president. Russia and China, who are in the BRICS group with India, were furious and slammed the US. But India was completely silent on the main issue.
This was not a mistake. It was a choice. India is walking a tightrope. On one side, they want to be seen as a leader who believes in independence. On the other side, they have a super important partnership with the United States to counter China.
If they condemned the US, they’d risk that relationship. If they supported the raid, they’d look like hypocrites to the rest of the world. So they chose to say nothing. But that silence wasn’t about principles. It was about two things: OIL and MONEY.
The Multi-Billion Dollar Problem
Behind all the quiet diplomacy is a HUGE problem for India worth billions of dollars. For years, Indian energy companies have had massive investments in Venezuela that were basically worthless because of US sanctions and Venezuela’s collapsing economy.
India’s main overseas energy company, OVL, owns a 40% stake in the San Cristóbal project and 11% in Carabobo-1. These were meant to be game-changing because they gave India a strategic foothold in Venezuela—home to roughly 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest in the world.
Instead, they became a giant money pit. Production completely stopped. And even worse, Venezuela stopped paying them. OVL alone is owed over $500 million, and the total amount of Indian money trapped there could be almost a BILLION DOLLARS.
For years, that money was just GONE. And it wasn’t just the money. India’s most advanced refineries were specially built to handle the exact kind of heavy oil that Venezuela produces. Before the sanctions, India was one of their biggest customers. Losing that oil forced them to find other, more expensive options, which cost them a fortune.
So the US raid was an instant nightmare. It looked like they had lost that oil partner for good, and a billion dollars of their investments were now in the hands of the same country whose sanctions caused all the problems in the first place!
The Ironic Connection
This is where the story gets even crazier. There’s an insane personal connection that nobody talks about. Nicolás Maduro, the president the US just captured, was a massive follower of an Indian spiritual guru, Sathya Sai Baba.
I’m not joking. In 2005, Maduro and his wife literally flew to India to meet the guru in person. There are pictures of him sitting at Sai Baba’s feet. People who visited the presidential palace in Caracas said there was a huge portrait of Sai Baba hanging in Maduro’s private office, right next to Venezuelan heroes.
It was even official. When Sai Baba died in 2011, Maduro got Venezuela’s government to pass a resolution honoring the guru’s “spiritual contribution to humanity.”
And yet, when this devotee president was captured by a foreign army, the land of his guru just put out a travel warning and a boring statement. It’s a brutal lesson: spiritual connections mean NOTHING when there’s money and power on the line. India’s reaction wasn’t personal; it was just business.
A Nightmare’s Silver Lining?
But what if this absolute nightmare is actually a GOLDEN opportunity? This is the crazy question being asked in India right now. The thinking is that the same US raid that created this diplomatic mess could actually solve India’s billion-dollar problem.
If a new, US-backed government takes over Venezuela, the sanctions will almost certainly be lifted. For Indian companies, this would change EVERYTHING. All of a sudden, getting back those hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid money is possible. With the US in charge, money from new oil sales could be used to pay off old debts.
Those dead projects could come back to life! With access to new technology and money, Indian companies could restart their oil fields, turning these worthless assets into cash-printing machines.
And the biggest prize of all: the supply of cheap Venezuelan heavy crude could be turned back on. For India’s refineries, this would be a massive win. They’d get discounted oil that’s perfect for their factories, and they wouldn’t have to rely so much on Russia and the Middle East.
This is the hidden jackpot in the nightmare. The US raid might have been a diplomatic disaster, but it could be the key that unlocks billions of dollars and secures a critical energy supply for India.
This insane web of diplomacy, money, and oil shows you the massive pressure India is under. The raid on Caracas gave them an impossible choice: act on its principles as a leader of the developing world, or chase its own self-interest and a billion-dollar prize.
Its silence shows it chose the second option. By saying nothing, India is betting that the economic rewards will be bigger than the damage to its reputation. It shows that their foreign policy is driven by cold, hard cash, not by old ideas.
The US raid in Venezuela isn’t just about Venezuela. For India, it’s a moment that defines everything, showing the brutal choices you have to make in a world run by giant superpowers.
So now I have to ask you: Should India have condemned the US raid and risked its partnership with Washington? Or are they right to stay silent to get their oil and money back? Let me know what you think in the comments below. And if you want more insane deep dives into global geopolitics, make sure you subscribe!
This whole thing proves that in the game of world politics, friendships and spiritual connections don’t matter what is your view friends, do share your it in the comment box below.