Imagine a political chess move so daring it could rewrite the future of Indian politics. A move that, on the surface, seems almost unthinkable. On July 21st, 2025, Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar resigned, citing health reasons. Almost immediately, the political world started buzzing with a single, explosive question: What if Narendra Modi’s pick for the next Vice President is none other than his oldest, most complicated political frenemy, Bihar’s Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar?
Now, this isn’t just a wild rumor; some Bihar BJP leaders have already pitched the idea. This is being seen as a potential masterstroke—a move to checkmate the opposition, lock down a critical state election, and reshape national politics in one shot. So, what are the strategic calculations behind this stunning possibility? Why would Nitish Kumar himself even consider it? And how does this fit perfectly into the Modi-Shah playbook?
First, let’s set the stage. The resignation of Jagdeep Dhankhar shocked the political spectrum. In his letter to the President, he cited health concerns, and it’s true that he was hospitalized in March for cardiac issues. In fact, sources say he had collapsed at public events in June and again just days before his resignation.
Still, the timing has raised eyebrows. Dhankhar was in the Rajya Sabha just hours before his announcement, and his office had just detailed a planned official trip. This has led many, including the opposition, to suspect that there’s more to it than just health. In the Modi era, very few high-profile exits are exactly what they seem. They’re almost always part of a bigger plan. Dhankhar’s resignation, therefore, isn’t just the end of his term; it’s the start of a new political chapter, creating a powerful vacancy that opens the door for a fascinating political realignment.
The Advantage for BJP – The Masterstroke
So, why would the BJP, which has the numbers to elect anyone it wants, choose a famously unpredictable figure like Nitish Kumar? The answer lies in a multi-layered strategy that solves several problems at once. This is where it goes from a simple appointment to a potential masterstroke.
Point A: Neutralizing the Opposition’s Core Strategy
For the upcoming Bihar assembly elections, the opposition, led by the RJD, has made attacking Nitish Kumar’s credibility a central pillar of their campaign. Their narrative paints him as a weakened leader who has failed to deliver. Their attacks are personal and relentless.
Now, picture this. By elevating Nitish Kumar to the second-highest constitutional office in the country, the BJP yanks the opposition’s main target right off the board. Who do they attack now? The entire electoral narrative they’ve spent months building would become useless overnight. This move would throw the opposition into strategic chaos, forcing them to scramble for a new story just months before a crucial election. It’s a classic case of political Aikido—using your opponent’s momentum against them. The BJP has a history of swapping out chief ministers to beat anti-incumbency, and this would be the ultimate version of that strategy.
Point B: Securing Bihar – The Electoral Math
Bihar isn’t just another state; it’s an electoral behemoth. Winning it is critical for setting the national mood. The BJP knows that even as the senior partner in the alliance, its success is tied to Nitish Kumar. His command over a specific, transferable vote bank—mainly the Kurmis and a large chunk of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs)—is the social glue holding the NDA together.
But, Nitish Kumar’s own party, the JD(U), has seen its power shrink, dropping from 115 seats in 2010 to just 43 in 2020, both times in an alliance with the BJP. This creates a vulnerability. The “Nitish for VP” strategy tackles this directly. First, it gives him a respectful and dignified exit from state politics, an honorable end to a long career as Chief Minister.
More importantly, it would clear the path for the BJP to install its own Chief Minister in Bihar for the very first time. This would let them consolidate power, reshape the state’s politics, and directly control the government heading into the 2025 elections. They could project a new face and try to pull in a larger share of the OBC vote bank that has traditionally stuck with Nitish. It’s a calculated risk, but the prize is huge: total control over one of India’s most important political states.
Point C: The Long Game – 2029 and Beyond
This isn’t just about the 2025 Bihar elections; it’s about the long road to the 2029 general election. A decisive win in Bihar, led by a new BJP Chief Minister, would create massive momentum for the NDA. It would cement the BJP’s dominance in the Hindi heartland and act as a launchpad for its national plans.
It also sends a powerful signal to all NDA allies, present and future. It shows that loyalty and strategic partnership are rewarded with prestigious posts. It proves the BJP is willing to share power, strengthening its image as a dependable coalition leader. In the messy world of alliance politics, symbolic moves like this are incredibly potent, helping to keep the political family disciplined and united.
The Advantage for Nitish Kumar – Why Would He Agree?
Of course, this all hangs on one big question: why would Nitish Kumar, a nine-time Chief Minister who has ruled Bihar for nearly two decades, agree to step aside? The answer is a pragmatic look at his own political future.
At 74, Nitish Kumar is a political veteran who’s been through countless battles. The Chief Minister’s job is grueling, and he’s faced growing personal attacks over his health and political maneuvers. The Vice Presidency is a golden parachute. It’s a prestigious, constitutional post that would lift him above the daily grind of party politics. He’d become the Chairman of the Rajya Sabha, a position of immense dignity and influence, allowing him to cement his legacy on a national stage.
This move would be an honorable finale to his career. He would leave state politics not in defeat, but by being elevated to one of the highest offices in the land. For a politician famous for his sharp instincts and knack for navigating tricky situations, this could be the final, and smartest, move of his career—securing his legacy and exiting the volatile state arena on his own terms.
The Precedent – A Well-Worn Playbook
Surprising political appointments to manage state dynamics are nothing new in Indian politics. We’ve seen senior leaders moved to governor roles or given national party jobs to make way for new leadership at home. This speculative move fits a familiar pattern.
The relationship between Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar is itself a masterclass in pragmatic politics. It’s been a complicated dance of rivalry and alliance for over two decades. They were rivals when Nitish had his own prime ministerial dreams, leading him to break the alliance in 2013. Then, they were allies again. This history of breaking up and making up shows that both leaders are pragmatists who know the art of the possible.
So, seeing them team up for a move that benefits them both isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds. It would be the final act in a long, complicated political drama, where both men recognize that, for this moment, their interests are perfectly aligned.
So, while the buzz around Nitish Kumar for Vice President is still just speculation, the political logic behind it is incredibly strong. For the BJP, it’s a strategic gambit that could neutralize the opposition, gut their campaign narrative, and pave the way for the BJP to take full control of Bihar. For Nitish Kumar, it offers a graceful, powerful, and legacy-defining exit from the turbulent world of state politics.
It’s a single move that solves multiple political puzzles at once, a hallmark of the Modi-Shah school of realpolitik. It handles alliance management, state election strategy, and long-term national consolidation. The pieces just seem to fit.
But what do you think? Is this a brilliant political strategy that could reshape Indian politics, or just a political fantasy? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.